Fox cable hosts are doing the job of the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Jared Bernstein, by admitting that the economy under President Biden is strong. Bernstein joins MSNBC’s Ali Velshi to discuss the latest “expectation-busting” jobs report.
People of a certain level and type of education think data and policies mean more than sentiment and messaging. But for many,t he data is secondary. You can see my comment on gas prices and unemployment being rooted in data and vibes. But the vibes for most people are what matters. And the vibes on election day are what matter most to undecided voters. I don’t think either party really gets the sense of dread that most people have and may never get it.
Which midterm are you talking about? I’m assuming you’re talking about the 2018 mid-term when Democrats picked up 41 seats since they lost the House in 2022. But another way of looking at the last five midterms, you see the midterms going to the party that is not the president’s. So I don’t think that the 2018 midterms provide a great reference point for the presidential election. Additionally, those gains in the 2018 election have slowly eroded giving control in the house to the Republicans.
But I wanted to address your strategy first and foremost since you address messaging. The projected map has Biden at 226, Trump at 235, and 77 to close to call. Those 77 electoral votes are spread across six states:
In 2020, all six went Biden by less than 5%. In the 2022 midterm, Republicans gained seats in the house from Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia. If those three switch to Trump, Trump wins with 272. Having a record showing in California or New York does little to help with these strategic areas.
I’m not too certain what matters to the voters in these six states, but in Arizona, the BoRDEr cRiSis, as you condescendingly noted, probably matters to them. In all six of those states, you’ll need a get out a vote drive to convince people to vibe with Biden. Usually those people are young and have a little more free time. But not when they see a genocide unfolding in Palestine and the Biden administration being complicit. Are the Arab Americans of Deerborn, MI going to come out and vote for Biden and Tlaib again? Will Tlaib stump for Biden? Are young Blacks in Atlanta or Philly going to come out in droves for Biden? I don’t know.
I don’t know what ground work the DNC has been doing, but I hope they’ve built a trusted network to get people to the polls. Either way, I don’t think the “Republicans are fucked”. It think we are looking at a close election again.
I’d wager we can simply call vibes the right-wing grip on shallow political talking-points at the national level, for which they’re pretty effective at admittedly. Such is the nature that lies and bullshit are easier to spread than the complexity of truth & reality. So in that respect, sure, there are many people who don’t have the vibe or feel the sentiment that things are going well — not because the data is wrong, but simply because they live in an alternate reality; an echo-chamber. A place where that data just doesn’t exist.
There is, frankly, little I can think of that we can do to reach these people. On the other hand, I think Donald has already cast a wide net and those who were trump supporters remain trump supporters (minus the dead ones from old boomers dying, covid, etc.). Yeah he’s making sligh tinroads with the likes of certain Hispanic populations — mostly in Florida and Texas, but Nevada is up in the air. The question is whether these inroads outpace the influx of Gen Z and Millennials who overall lean Dem.
Actually I am referring to 2022 midterms, because as you said – the midterms tend to go to the party not the President’s; and if we compare either 2010 or 2014 to 2022, then Democrats vastly overperformed in 2022, turning what was coined the “red wave,” to at best a red tinkle, or even a blue tinkle depending on what you prioritize. Because of the reversal of Roe, youth showed up and offset what could’ve otherwise been a disastrous midterm during a rough economy. We won key Secretary of State positions, Governorships, and expanded a lead in the Senate. Yes, lost the House, true. Though not by much.
If Democratic turnout meets 2020 or 2022 levels, which it should, then I think Biden is in a stronger position now than he was in 2020 due to:
In the absence of major economic issues, I predict the priorities of preserving Democracy, Justice, and Women’s Rights will rise to forefront – especially after campaign spending really kicks off.
It’s really not that big of an issue. It’s no different than the “mIGRanT CaRaVaN” that Donnie tried to fearmonger with as he pulled National Guard from their Thanksgiving dinners to try to drum up hysteria… Which turned out to be nothing. Hell even of the recent MAGA convoy themselves arrived and are confused..
So, what exactly is going in favor for Republicans compared to past election cycles…? The age issue remains a constant with both Presidents. I “condescendingly” wrote it that way because it’s patently a manufactured crisis. There are myriad issues that far exceed in this in impact to Americans overall. Yet I admit that the “vibe” right-wing media projects has this “BoRDeR CriSis” sticking even with some Independents and Democrats. Hence why Biden in a stroke of genius called the bluff of Republicans by giving them everything they wanted, and now they stumble to save face and figure out a way to not pass the legislation because Donald Trump told them not to because it’s literally his only attack going into 2024. Thus, Biden just neutered it.
These are pretty small groups; the BoTh SiDeS false equivalence fallacy is losing its muster as more and more people are made aware of classic wedge-driving techniques during these election cycles. At the end of the day, Biden has already significantly shifted his tone with Israel, and will these people be foolish enough to think Trump won’t be an order-of-magnitude worse in his revocation of rights and complicity in genocides? (Recall, Trump said he’d block all Palestinian refugees… That really sat well with Muslims last time he tried that, didn’t it?). What about Ukraine? We know Trump sucks up to Putin… Will people opt to not vote or vote for Trump, knowing he’ll leave Ukraine hanging? I don’t think so.
I’m not going to say this is a slam-dunk, but I absolutely am more confident now than I was in 2020, or 2022.
So two things and I’ll let it be.
First, the migration issue has gained traction among voters in swing states [2]. Our system doesn’t reward the most popular candidste, but the one who can garner the most votes by state.
Swing states matter. And small, undecided groups in swing states matter most.
All the data and risk assessment mean very little. Politics are emotional. They are in the pain of today and worries of tomorrow.
I think your confidence is on shaky ground. And worry that Biden and the Democrats aren’t doing enough of the right things to be seen as better than anything else.
Well I think we’ve both said our piece and it’s just a matter of time now before speculation turns history. Perhaps more productively we need to ask how we can increase the odds Biden wins by even more, which I’m not opposed.