In this particular case, OP said none of the others met their needs. I would like to know what new functionality this one has to know if it’s something I’m interested in or not. It’s not a critique - it’s helping me understand if I want to check it out or not.
The expression you can’t outrun your fork has hit me hard. I’m up 30lbs since I started running a decade ago, some of it’s muscle, but most is I just need to eat better.
I mean, that makes me even more skeptical. 108 volunteers tracked for that many sparesely populated vectors is 100% going to have hundreds of false positives just due to statistical noise.
I appreciate your original question and tact through these follow ups. I’m also having trouble finding primary sources in my quick search.
It’s so hard to figure out this stuff … but as a guy into computers who was debating going into academia instead of the field, this is what I did …
I took the money, but lived like I had only the academic salary and invested the rest. 15 years in, life is pretty cushy, I’ve found a relaxing niche in my field that I like my job, but it’s basically optional as long as I stay willing to live like an academic. But there were definitely some pains to get here. I might quit and go back, I might quit and travel, or quit and do a start up, but I like my job a lot now so I’m keeping at it.
538 also is running a brand new model by a new hire as when they let Nate Silver go, he kept the IP to the model that made them famous. Nate Silver just published yesterday a pretty detail list of reasons why you shouldn’t trust the new model they developed. The original model has Biden at a 28% chance of winning, trending down - the 28% is assuming either polling error or that he does something to change the tide, both of which seem less likely than in the past so the model is probably optimistic.
I’m in management. I couldn’t even give all my direct reports enough time if I tried to consolidate it down to one day, let alone partners, vendors, stakeholders, etc. Then add in all the project meetings, working sessions, etc …
First game I’ve 100% in a long time. I absolutely loved this game.
These are extremely old polling dates, and don’t reflect changes since
It could change the VP (tie breaking vote in Senate)
Communication is a two way street. It’s both about the message the sender is trying to convey, but also the way the receiver interprets it. As a (mostly) neurotypical thinker, this is even hard for many of us to get right.
An example for clarity is the response your getting in the comments to your friends comments. Various people are disagreeing and agreeing to different levels. Conversation is navigating the complicated dynamics to as the sender, sending your message in a way the receiver will get the impression you are trying to give, and as a receiver, trying to understand the intent of the message the sender is trying to show.
There aren’t many hard or fast rules. In different online communities, different styles and patterns can conotate different things. There are patterns and styles I use here on Lemmy for example, I would never use in a sports online community because they would be interpreted differently there.
My advice is don’t beat yourself up about it. If you’re not getting the type of interactions you’re expecting in a particular community, that might be the time to ask for feedback or see if your communication style is different than the local group there. But the ephemeral nature of these online conversations make it the perfect place to experiment and find a communication style that works for you and gets the response from others you are looking for.
His model actually accounts for whether polls were taken before or after an event, and raises and lowers their impact and error margin based on that. Right up to the debate, his model was giving Kamala a <30% chance and it’s only the inclusion of new polls since the debate that have moved her to 50%.